Gummint Spending - The *ONLY* problem is Health Care

Seriously.
Not Social Security.
Not Defense.
Not the DMV.
Not the EPA.
Not whatever other thing your average Wingnut On the Street is busy raving about.
Health care and only health care.

How do I know this?
Well, the CBO has a new white-paper out called Options for Deficit Reduction, and it has a bunch of cool stuff in it.  But, by far the coolest part is on page 23, on an extremely non-imaginatively titled chart called (I kid you not) "Components of Non-Interest Spending Under the Extended Alternative Fiscal Scenario".
I know, I know, gorgeous bureaucratise,  right? I'll let Ezra Klein translate it for you

These graphs are built atop what’s called “the current policy” baseline. The current policy baseline assumes nothing changes. We don’t pass any new laws. We don’t follow through on the hard parts — like the cost controls in the Affordable Care Act — of any of the laws we’ve already passed. We don’t raise taxes.

And the result?  The charts below

What this basically shows you is that

1. Social Security - Not a problem.  Oh, it ticks up a bit, but not by much (I've already pointed this out here, but it bears repeating).  In fact, a relatively minor tweak - raising the social security tax cap - pretty much deals with the issue.  James Kwak writes about this in a bit more detail here, with the bottom line being that This Is Not A Problem.
2. Other Non-Medical Shit - Not a problem.  What?  You didn't realize that broadly non-medical government spending was actually falling? What kind of wingnutty news sources might you have been paying attention to, that made you think this was expanding?  Hmmmm?  Seriously though, the point above is that Even if we don't do anything else to reduce the size of (non-medical) gummint, This Is Not A Problem
3. Health Care - This is a problem. Actually, i tell a lie, this is the problem.  The only problem.  Nothing else matters.  This Is A Problem!!!!

Regarding Health Care, do note that the above chart does not take into account the Affordable Care Act ("Obamacare" / "Romneycare"). It does not assume any savings coming from that.
Are there savings there? Theoretically yes.
Will they work? I dunno, but I'd claim that it is a far better bet to try something than do nothing. Nothing leads to the above chart.  Something might actually help.
The bottom line - Its about Health Care stupid....