Classifying Predictions
Hat-tip Alex Popescu Quickly identifying the type of a prediction will help you either create your own list or going through others’ much easier. There are 4 types of predictions. Truism . This category should be obvious. Already confirmed facts , sometimes in a new packaging that is supposed to make them sound new, carrying no actual value, no new or interesting information. PR-esque . There are types of roles—think C-level management—requiring people to formulate some predictions characterized mostly by unjustifiable optimistism . These predictions usually take the form of: “this is the year of our product”. Sometimes there are facts or some truth behind them, but most often these are given an unbalanced weight or emphasis compared with reality. I told you so or It was me that said this firstly . There are jobs—think analysts or journalists—that require people to throw out the most phantasmagoric predictions in the hopes that at some...