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Buzzwords Factor - A metric to measure idea quality

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The Buzzword Factor is the ratio of the number of buzzwords in a phrase to the total number of words in that phrase, expressed as a percentage The next time you're in a presentation (or argument!), check out the buzzword factor.  If it goes over 20%, then the odds are that the presenter is trying to pull a bit of a fast one.  You'll typically see this in the loosest part of the presentation / argument. This is typically the part that really didn't quite get the attention it deserved, or wasn't quite thought out.  In the real world, Sydney above would have replaced " Then a miracle occurs " with " judicious use of Calabi-Yau transforms which are left to the reader "... Do note that the buzzword-factor can go up even when the idea is sound, if the presenter lacks confidence .  A bit trickier to deal with, so I guess that the correct equation is B ∝ Q/C where B = Buzzword Factor Q = Quality of Idea C = Confidence of the presenter * Buzzw...

Classifying Predictions

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Hat-tip Alex Popescu Quickly identifying the type of a prediction will help you either create your own list or going through others’ much easier. There are 4 types of predictions. Truism . This category should be obvious.   Already confirmed facts , sometimes in a new packaging that is supposed to make them sound new, carrying no actual value, no new or interesting information. PR-esque . There are types of roles—think C-level management—requiring people to formulate some predictions characterized mostly by   unjustifiable optimistism . These predictions usually take the form of: “this is the year of our product”. Sometimes there are facts or some truth behind them, but most often these are given an unbalanced weight or emphasis compared with reality. I told you so   or   It was me that said this firstly . There are jobs—think analysts or journalists—that require people to throw out the most phantasmagoric predictions   in the hopes that at some...