Why would anybody (sane) deposit money in a Greek bank?
FT alphaville asks the same question, and as usual, has an answer too. Its all based on something called TARGET - not The House Of Cheap Plastic, the Trans European Automated Real-Time Gross Settlement Express Transfer. (ed: Who names these things? Wackos, one and all). To quote
Bizarre times indeed...
Or, to put it differently, its basically a mechanism by which the Bundesbank is lending Greeks money for burgers today, in return for the promise of a payment on Tuesday. Which, as you might imagine, is extremely extremely unlikely to happen.One of the mysteries, to me, of the Greek crisis has been why there should be any deposits left in the local banks. All those with more euros than they need in order to eat and stay warm and dry should have moved their savings to, say, Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt, while they still can. The answer, of course, is that they have. The Greek system has only survived this slow-motion bank run thanks to the German banks sending it right back to them, via the Bundesbank, through the Trans-European Automated Real-Time Gross Settlement Express Transfer.What, never heard of TARGET? Do keep up. It’s an international version of the transmission system which allows money deposited in Barclays in Leeds to be drawn out of Lloyds in Luton. It matters not if money is consistently drawn from Luton and consistently deposited in Leeds, since other mechanisms cycle the money round, whether by Lutonians buying things made in Leeds, or by the state’s great tax and spend machine.
TARGET, now Target2 for reasons we need not fuss about, assumes that similar mixing forces would always work inside the eurozone. This was a triumph of hope over experience, and we now know that the hope was misplaced. Essentially, the IOUs have piled up in the Bundesbank, €500bn at the end of last year, and certainly a good deal more now, as the southern European countries have consistently bought more stuff from the Germans than they have sold. Events have proved that it’s possible to have a balance-of-payments crisis inside a single currency zone.Which, as it turns out, is yet another reason for the "kick the can down the road" approach being taken by the Eurozone. If the Bundesbank had to actually price these IOUs at market value, as compared to TARGET based funny-money, it would - essentially - be insolvent. And that would put Europe in a pretty pickle, since at this point about the only serious source of 'hard currency' in the EU is Germany.
Bizarre times indeed...
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