EFSF watch - when will it lose its AAA rating?

As I mentioned yesterday, the S&P just went ape-shit all over the Eurozone countries, lowering most of their ratings.  So what about the EFSF?  The S&P said back on Dec 6

Based on EFSF’s current structure, were we to lower one or more of the current ’AAA’ ratings on EFSF’s guarantor members, all else being equal, we would lower the issuer and issue ratings on EFSF to the lowest sovereign rating on members currently rated ‘AAA’.

Yesterday, France & Austria both lost their AAA ratings, which means that the EFSF is now, all but certain to lost its AAA rating.
When?
My best guess is Monday or Tuesday.
And then?

Aha, thats where life gets even more interesting.  The issue at hand is that most of the Eurocrisis solutions that have been bandied about involve leveraging the EFSF - typically something like "Use it to insure loans made to Eurozone countries" at the simplest, to some really hair-raising CDS-squared schemes at the complex end (sigh.  its not like we haven't learned about these by now).  Having a non-AAA rated EFSF bailout Europe is like asking your poor relative to co-sign the loan on your Ferrari - if you can't afford it yourself, the co-signing isn't really going to help...

Or, as Jacques Caillou of RBS puts it

Although Euro area member states “will explore the options” to keep the EFSF’s triple-A, we expect S&P will ultimately align the EFSF’s rating with that of France and Austria at AA+. Indeed, in order to maintain the AAA rating of the EFSF, euro area policy makers would have to accept a reduction in the lending capacity of the EFSF by Eur169bn. Alternatively they would need to increase their guarantees significantly, something we believe unlikely at a time that the focus is shifting on the ESM.

The upcoming ESM will however also face a difficult trade-off between higher lending volume and achieving a AAA rating. With no further increase to the current callable capital levels, the lending capacity of the ESM would decline by Eur200bn. To maintain the current lending capacity and its AAA, then member countries would need to double their level of callable capital into the ESM compared to current commitment. Should euro area policy makers want to double the lending capacity of the ESM from pre downgrade times (while maintaining its AAA), then the ESM would need a callable capital of almost 30% of euro area GDP! Discussions surrounding the potential increase in the size of the ESM in March will be more difficult post downgrade.