Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Floorwax / salad-dressing, and now USB / Cufflinks?

Seriously - you thought that Shimmer was the greatest thing since, well, the Bassomatic, but you would be wrong!
From the genii at Brookstone comes the first true competition to Shimmer - the USB Cufflinks
From the product page
These cufflinks feature 2GB USB storage plus they provide a WiFi hotspot to multiple devices! You can also access media servers from the host computer. Perfect for business meetings, travel and techies everywhere.
Indeed - the uses are endless!

(No, I'm not continuing the snark.  It speaks for itself)








Credit Cards - Chip & Pin

Looks like Mastercard is looking to bring it to the U.S
*Finally*!
 We’re moving toward a world beyond plastic, where consumers will shop and pay in a way that best fits their needs and lifestyles with a simple tap, click or touch in-store, online or on a mobile device,” said Chris McWilton, President, U.S. Markets, MasterCard. “Our roadmap represents a transformational shift in the approach to payments and is not simply about EMV, chip and PIN. We’re focused on readying the ecosystem to drive future innovation and provide new consumer experiences to enhance the value of electronic payments. ”
Whatever.  Seriously.  As long as we can finally get chip & pin into the U.S. (which means that my U.S. credit cards can finally start working in Europe!

Blackberry. #BeBold. Words fail me...

From the Blackberry blogs, comes this InfoGraphic
 Words...truly...fail...me...
 Seriously, I hope that this isn't part of Thorsten Heins' new "Saving RIM" strategy.  If it is, well, <gulp>.  I mean GoGo Girl - "Saving the day with a strategy, a smile or a spatula"?  Really?
Like I said, <gulp>




There aint no looming wireless apocalypse...

Karl Bode gets cheesed off at people claiming a spectrum capacity crisis
Anybody who warns of an unavoidable capacity crisis on wireline or wireless networks is lying in order to sell you something. That may be a blunt assessment to some, but it's the only conclusion you can draw as we see time and time again that claims about a looming network apocalypse (remember the Exaflood?) violently overestimate future traffic loads and underestimate the ingenuity of modern network engineers. Fear sells. Drink orange juice or you'll die of cancer. Get more insurance or you're a bad family man. Vote for me or lose your job and see your grandma deported. Pay $2.50 per gigabyte or face Internet brown outs. Be afraid.
[...] As usual though, actually bothering to listen to and look at the data tells a different story. Nobody argues that spectrum is infinite, but buried below industry histrionics is data noting that there really isn't a spectrum crisis as much as a bunch of lazy and gigantic spectrum squatters, hoarding public-owned assets to limit competition, while skimping on network investment to appease short-sighted investors. Insiders at the FCC quietly lamented that the very idea of a spectrum crisis was manufactured for the convenience of government and industry. Now Dave Burstein this week bothered to actually look at wireless growth rates to (surprise surprise) find them to be completely reasonable:

How is this not a criminal offence?

Why is it not a criminal offence?
From the FT Alphaville, we have the story of Ravi Shankar SInha, the UK CEO of JC Flower's (huge globe-girdling P.E. firm), who ended up losing a lot of money during the financial crisis (poor guy :-(  ).
As any red-blooded human being would do, he set out to rectify the situation, and make back his money.
How?
I'm glad you asked.  What he seems to have done is the following (for context, "Company A" is a company that JCF had invested in)
  • He went to Company A, and claimed that they owed him advisory fees.
  • He told Company A that JCF had authorized the payment of these advisory fees (after all, he was the CEO.  Why would they disbelieve him?)
  • He then sent them invoices for around 1.3 Million Euros (and more!), for these 'advisory fees' (yeah, you guessed it, fake invoices)
The kicker, of course, is that he basically made the whole thing up - there were no advisory fees authorized, and any work he'd done for Company A was all as part of being at JCF, not personal stuff.

In due time he got caught (gory details from the FSA here), and they fined him (as well as took back the money he'd gotten from Company A.


Seriously, how can this not be criminal?  I'm assuming there is some kind of British Law thing going on here (but I'm almost certain there isn't, but hey, I'm not a lawyer).  But come on, this is serious money. We send people to jail for writing $90K of bad checks, but faking invoices for waaay more money - thats ok somehow?


Mind you, I'm with Adam Gopnik who writes in the New Yorker that
For that matter, no social good is served by having the embezzler or the Ponzi schemer locked in a cage for the rest of his life, rather than having him bankrupt and doing community service in the South Bronx for the next decade or two. Would we actually have more fraud and looting of shareholder value if the perpetrators knew that they would lose their bank accounts and their reputation, and have to do community service seven days a week for five years
But I still think of this as criminal, not civil, and for the upper 0.1% (or whatever the heck P.E. CEOs are), these type of penalties should be exceptionally severe - e.g., picking up dog-poop along the Brooklyn waterfront every day, twice a day, for 20 years.

SalesForce on a roll - Heroku, Do.com, and now Desk.com

Salesforce just launched Desk.com, their revamp of Assistly (which they bought).  As a quick recap, Assistly was a cloud-based platform that allowed businesses to do integrated customer support/management across most asynchronous modalities, viz., Twitter, Facebook, Email, Phone, IM, etc.  SalesForce bought the company last year.

They've pretty significantly redone the GUI - making it vastly more mobile-friendly than it used to be (The mobile version is mostly, if not completely HTML5).  From what I understand, they've also retooled the back-end, basing it all on Heroku a-la do.com.

More details from VentureBeat here.


One flashlight to rule them all...

Presenting, the 4sevens XM18.
Its a bit big for a flashlight, but boy wouldn't it be bright :-)

(oh, and its pricey too. $2500).

Still, 15,000 Lumens! FTW!


Monday, January 30, 2012

Law Firms - and the Cloud

"Practice Management" is a complex business - and I'm not referring to the part where you try to get clients (and their money).  There is an equally tricky bit involving not spending too much of your own money - and not losing your hair in the process - just staying in business.
  • You need Microsoft Office of course, because frankly if you're a lawyer, you're using Word.  For sure.
  • Email - almost certainly Outlook on the desktop, and quite possibly tied into Exchange somehow.
  • Some kind of remote desktop thingy, because you need to get at all those documents that are on the office share.
  • Oh, the 'office share' of course
And all this before we even *begin* to get to the fun stuff like time-tracking, document management, legal research, and the like - you know, all the fun stuff that you actually need to do to be in business?

Towards this, there seem to broadly be two different approaches being taken towards SaaS-ifying this business (and lets admit it, this is ripe for SaaS-ification) -  
  • User-based: Focused on the needs of the end-user, with clear, concise, and straightforward mechanisms to perform most tasks associated with their day to day activities.
  •  Administrivia-based: Focused on the needs of the administrator, with fine-grained control over permissions, access-control, abilities, etc., in short, the ability to tweak the application to precisely meet the needs of the practice.
Law Loop is the classic example of the User-based approach to cloud-based practice management.  The law firm Zuber & Taillieu, identified a need - the ability to get all the above pieces in a (highly) affordable form for small law-firms - and proceeded to build what they needed to actually get their work down.  They approached this from the front-end, i.e., automating the things that users at law firms do as part of their business - such as communications, document-management, etc.  The key is that this is highly user-focused, i.e., it approaches all of these from the end-user's perspective, while automating all the drudgery on the back-end such as billing, time-tracking, etc.


Rocket Matter straddles the line between User and administrivia based software, successfully hitting the sweet spot between the two.  The key, I believe, is that they've taken proven solutions from other areas - CRM, calendaring, document-management - and recast them into the legal world.  For an firm with entrenched business processes this takes a little getting used to (seriously, there are organizations out there with the senior partners still dictate their emails.  And I'm not joking.  Unfortunately), but for rest of us, its entirely familiar, and natural to boot. 


Clio is the classic administrivia-based approach to cloud-based practice management.  They focus on the same tasks as Law Loop, but do it from the system's perspective, i.e., integrating all the front-office and back-office tasks necessary to run a practice and making it available on the web, from the administrator's perspective. It may be slightly rougher around the edges than Law Loop, but that is as much a question of perspective as it is reality (think Android vs iPhone.  And I'm not saying which is which!).  The key here is that Clio allows for a tremendous amount of flexibility and control in how firms set up their business practices.

About the only key feature lacking in all of the above is a business-grade voice service.  Given the plethora of Hosted PBX services (including my, admittedly biased, favorite - Vocalocity) it should be a somewhat natural fit to integrate business voice into the above services.

At the end of the day, each of these products has a natural sweet spot. They are clearly competitors, but they are approaching the same target from different directions - Law Loop makes the end-user's life simpler,  Clio makes the administrator's life easier, and Rocket Matter is the most "collaboration-oriented" of the lot.  They are all rapidly adding 'business-enabling' capabilities to their products, such as document management, reference lookups, etc, and will all clearly end up meeting in roughly the same place.  There are clearly interesting times ahead in this space!

Note: The problem associated with providing the fine-grained control necessary to maximize administrative ability is that it is almost antithetical to ease of use from a user's perspective.  The more bells-and-whistles you add to a product, the more likely it is that most users end up not using the features and/or the product.  The key is going to be in figuring out how these two approaches can mesh, i.e., how you can improve the administrative ability of the application without overwhelming the user.

European leaders - "Water might be wet"

From the NY Times (an article charmingly titled "Austerity is not enough")
Bowing to mounting evidence that  austerity alone cannot solve the debt crisis, European leaders are expected to conclude  this week that what the debt-laden, sclerotic countries of the Continent need are a dose of economic growth.
A draft of the European Union summit meeting communiqué calls for ‘‘growth-friendly consolidation and job-friendly growth,’’ an indication that European leaders  have come to realize that austerity measures, like those being put in countries like Greece and Italy,  risk stoking a recession and plunging fragile economies into a  downward spiral.
 Really?
Really?
Earth to Captain Obvious - This has been somewhat remarkably and ridiculously obvious from Day 1 (or, if you're Paul Krugman, from the beginning of the Grand Experiment).  As I've mentioned elsewhere, if you don't have control over your own currency (hello EU countries), then there is absolutely no way that the public sector and the private sector can de-leverage at the same time, if you are not growing!
Read that again.  Think about it. Its blindingly obvious to me, to you, and to everyone, and it seems, finally to the EU leaders.

A welcome dose of reality...

On a theoretical framework for Bullshit

Harry Frankfurt of Princeton attempts to answer the question that has vexed philosophers for millenia - Why is there so much Bullshit?.
One of the most salient features of our culture is that there is so
much bullshit. Everyone knows this. Each of us contributes his
share. But we tend to take the situation for granted. Most people
are rather confident of their ability to recognize bullshit and to
avoid being taken in by it. So the phenomenon has not aroused
much deliberate concern, or attracted much sustained inquiry. In
consequence, we have no clear understanding of what bullshit is,
why there is so much of it, or  what functions it serves
.
[...] Why is there so much bullshit? Of course it is impossible to be
sure that there is relatively more of it nowadays than at other
times. There is more communication of all kinds in our time than
ever before, but the proportion  that is bullshit may not have
increased. Without assuming that the incidence of bullshit is
actually greater now, I will mention a few considerations that help
to account for the fact that it is currently so great.

The paper is deeply reasoned, and is worth perusing in some detail.  In the end, he comes down on our lack of reliable access to an objective reality, viz.,
Rather than seeking primarily to arrive at accurate representations of a
common world, the individual turns toward trying to provide
honest representations of himself. Convinced that reality has no
inherent nature, which he might  hope to identify as the truth
about things, he devotes himself to being true to his own nature.
... As conscious beings, we exist only in response to other things, and
we cannot know ourselves at all without knowing them.
Moreover, there is nothing in  theory, and certainly nothing in
experience, to support the extraordinary judgment that it is the
truth about himself that is the easiest for a person to know. Facts
about ourselves are not peculiarly solid and resistant to skeptical
dissolution. Our natures are, indeed, elusively insubstantial —
notoriously less stable and less inherent than the natures of other
things. And insofar as this is the case, sincerity itself is bullshit.

Sunday, January 29, 2012

Every Doctor Who Video since 1963 - a montage

Hat tip @Babelcolor

Getting "Freemium" to work (and why sometimes it wont)

Uzi Shmilovici (of Future Simple fame) has a post up on GigaOm about making Freemium work for your business. He addresses two main issues, Customer Cost, and Free/Premium Segmentation, and addresses them well.  Go read it - it may belabor the obvious a bit, but that is worth belaboring since most people actually don't get this.

While perusing this, a point that struck me was that people rarely quantify the reasons people upgrade. Of course, you need to have a product that everybody likes, etc., etc., but as Tyler found out at Letters From Santa (in this article), people aren't going to pay you just because they thought you are doing a good job. In any sort of product - Freemium or otherwise - people will only upgrade if there is something in it for them.  Oh yes, some might do so as a Thank You, but that is remarkably rare.

In particular, when it comes to Freemium products, people will (happily) upgrade for one of the following reasons
  1. Eliminating Advertising:  You basically pay to not see (or hear, in Pandora / Spotify's case) the ads.
  2. Adding Resources: Usage is free, but you eventually run into a capacity limit of some kind (Storage on BoxDropBox, concurrent users on Blitz.io)
  3. Removing Paywalls : You can only use the product 'n' times a day before it prevents access till the next day (Financial TImes)
  4. Support/Customization : In effect, you pay to speak to someone, and or for any Customization of the product (Chargify)
Its worth repeating though, the product needs to be so good that it draws you in and hooks you.  Each of the examples above definitely falls into the "crack" category off apps - once you start using them, you can't stop, and you gladly pay for the upgrade.  
However, and this is a big "However", if the application is good enough as it is, so that people don't feel the need to upgrade, well, there really is going to be no conversion, and your model is dead in the water.

LettersFromSanta pretty much failed all the Why Upgrade tests.  It was perfectly good enough as it was, and there was really no need to upgrade.  That was Tyler's main problem - there was no incentive on anybody's part to pay him (except for goodwill, and that really tends to not get you all that far, unfortunately)

Or to put this quite differently, you will find plenty of examples of successful and failed Freemium plays.  Then again, you will find plenty of examples of successful and failed restaurants.  In either case, success and/or failure have precious little to tell us about the inherent value of Freemium (or the Restaurant!) business. 

If your service fails, either you have the wrong service, or you are doing it wrong :-)

In closing, I'll use Uzi's words
The last thing I’d like to remind you is that the entry ticket for success in freemium is having an amazing product that creates value for people — one that people love and use. If you don’t have that, the smartest pricing model in the universe can’t help you.

What could happen to Greece? "Simple" graphic here...

Viola meets Nokia

Apart from the fact that they both end in 'a', they don't really have much in common.
Or so you'd think - heres what happens when a  ringtone suddenly breaks into a viola recital in Slovakia.  After an initial wtf moment, responds Lukáš beautifully

Take it away Lukáš KmiÅ¥ 

by Milan Ferencik/Greatmilan & Jakub Hasko/CTZ Films
http://greatmilan.blog.cz/1201/the-video-is-not-a-fake 

 

Mahesh's Eighth Law - Capers

Capers are highly under-rated

Corollary
Everything tastes better with Capers 

Addendum
Nora Ephron is wrong


BTW, The Nora Ephron quote was "...any dish that tastes good with capers in it, tastes better with capers not in it"

Bookstores are to books what Starbucks is to coffee

The NY Times discusses the publishing industry's last stand / line in the sand / save us strategy - working with B & N
“That display space they have in the store is really one of the most valuable places that exists in this country for communicating to the consumer that a book is a big deal,” said Madeline McIntosh, president of sales, operations and digital for Random House.
 And therein lies - potentially - the key to their salvation (to the extent that salvation is available, that is).  They do seem to be approaching this with a coherent strategy, based on market realities.  E-books are exploding, and maintaining price-levels is going to be difficult.  Deploying a regimen of enforced scarcity is not really going to help (or work) - and the bookstores are useful entities, not the least because they serve a valuable alternate function They are to books, what Starbucks is to coffee.

Seriously - coffee shops sells a ton of coffee, but a huge chunk of people that go there go to socialize, either directly or indirectly, and walk away with some crazily overpriced coffee.

Definitely a lesson there, no?

Who cares how "deserving" the poor are?

Noah gets cheezed off slightly at the upcoming "Deserve to be poor" debate, asking, "Who cares how "deserving" the poor are?

Regarding the first of my questions, "Do we want to make poor people less poor", it may be that your sense of morality tells you that if someone is in a condition as a direct result of their own actions, it would be wrong to try to remove that person from that condition. Fine, good for you! But for my part, I often simply don't care. If I am getting mugged by a poor person, I quite frankly do not give a rodent's gluteal region whether that person is poor because he made bad life choices or because the circumstances of his birth made his poverty inevitable; I want him to stop mugging me, and if making him less poor will make him stop mugging me, then maybe this would be a good thing to do, regardless of whether he "deserves" it. When I witness the urban blight, violence, drug abuse, and other social ills that poverty may be causing, as a non-poor person I have an interest in preventing these things from affecting me, regardless of whether they are "deserved."

Also, whether people are poor because of their own actions doesn't really tell us how to get them out of poverty. Scolding and finger-wagging does not work. Just because a person's actions got him into a situation doesn't mean that his actions can get him out of it. And even if poor people could raise themselves up out of poverty at any time, scolding and finger-wagging is not likely to induce them to suddenly do so. The conservative solution to poverty - make it really, really unpleasant to be poor, and then hope people will do the smart thing and avoid it - has failed and failed and failed again.

So from my point of view, asking whether or not poor people "deserve" their poverty is asking the wrong question.

That said, I think the Caplan definition of "deserve" is not as "uncontroversial" a moral premise as Caplan declares. The reason is that it is a partial-equilibrium definition, not a general-equilibrium one. If we live in a society in which X percent of the populace must be poor, then no matter what set of actions is taken by the population, some people will wind up in poverty. To see this, imagine that we lived in a society in which the hardest-working 50% of people get to be spectacularly rich, and the other 50% are forced to live in squalid poverty. In this society, if everyone raises their effort by 1000%, the number of people in poverty stays exactly the same. I doubt that most people would say that the lower half of the population "deserved" to stay in poverty after raising their effort by 1000%! But that is exactly what Caplan's definition implies.

But anyway, that is a bit beside the point, because in my opinion the whole question is a bit of a pointless one.
All fairly accurate.  I think he misses one point though - I don't think most conservatives actually believe the 'make it really really unpleasant to be poor' option, its just something that keeps the buzz going, a-la Fannie, Freddie, and Chewbacca. To quote
The rest are just Bullshitting. That is, they don’t really care what the truth is one way or the other. This is just a way to gesture in the general direction of the federal government and say Urrhh!!!

Saturday, January 28, 2012

Absolut - Graphene?

From an article on the Beeb about Graphene
Graphene is a form of carbon. It is a flat layer of carbon atoms tightly packed into a two-dimensional honeycomb arrangement.
 Dr Nair said: "Just for a laugh, we sealed a bottle of vodka with our (graphene) membranes and found that the distilled solution became stronger and stronger with time. Neither of us drinks vodka but it was great fun to do the experiment."
 Imagine the possibilities!


Reason #113 - Why I Have Issues with Java

Scott Sellers (of Azul fame) has a post up on GigaOm about Java memory issues.  To quote
An improvement in the Java virtual machine (JVM) can make a world of difference.
E-commerce application failures can often be sourced back to limitations of conventional JVMs, which constrain application resources and make it challenging to scale apps beyond a few gigabytes of memory, which can effect performance under load.
Conventional JVMs also suffer from stop-the-world pauses because the JVM needs to clean up its internal memory, the impact of which causes applications to freeze and become unresponsive.
Programmers must tune Java to work around the JVM’s limited scalability and very carefully manage the amount of memory a given application uses. For e-tailers, this is bad news, because e-commerce applications must handle users loads that are never static and require more memory for each user and transaction to ensure consistent user response times and high sustained throughput.
What if e-tailers had a JVM that could elastically manage application memory allocation before it ever became a limitation?
The Java runtime (i.e. the JVM) would sense the demands of the application in real-time and grow its memory beyond the static limitation of conventional JVMs and never encounter those nasty stop-the-world pauses. Rather than freezing during demand surges and peak requirements, e-commerce applications would stay highly available and responsive. Such a JVM would enable the Java runtime to be consistent regardless of sales volume.
 So yeah, this is pretty accurate, and pretty much describes all the chaos that I've dealt with in the past with our production telecommunications platform running flat-out, at scale, where we spent aeons figuring out that magical set of metrics for startup memory, heap, load, scale-factors, tint-control, astrological signs, etc. that would keep things from crashing unexpectedly.
Add to that the monitoring, alarming, tracking, and general care/feeding associated with seeing exactly how things were going on every node, well, it was a bit of a righteous pain.
Mind you, this is pretty true of a lot of environments out there.  The erlang VM (my environment of choice) has *its* own memory issues, but, and this is key, it is pretty damn predictable.
And that, in the end, is my main quibble w/ Java - it is anything but predictable.

Oh I know, pretty much everything above has the obvious response along the lines of "But if you just do XXX then you don't need to worry about YYY", to which I respond with Mahesh's Tenth Law - "Complexity never goes away, it just moves around the plate.
I'm pretty serious about that - the environment you choose pretty much constrains the level of complexity that you will be dealing with.  Attempts to throttle these in one arena will, inevitably, move it around to a different area.

Heres to hoping that somebody (Oracle? maybe?) actually does something about this.

Note:  Yes, I am referring to Java - The Environment, not Java - The Language, or even Java - The Class Libraries. Those are subjects of a completely different rant, something along the lines of Why OO Sucks, but then that would just be trolling wouldn't it?




How D&D is like the World of Web Development

Andy Budd has a long post up about the similarity between character classes in Dungeons & Dragons and roles in web-development. To summarize the thing, he draws analogies as

  • Fighters =:= Developers
  • Thieves =:= Front end developers
  • Illusionists =:= Designers
  • Clerics =:= Project Managers
  • Rangers =:= UX Designers
I'm really short-changing the article.  Seriously, go read it.  But, in the meantime, there were was one section in particular which caught my eye 
Characters in Dungeons & Dragons progress by gaining experience points which relate to the complexity of the quests they undertake and the level of the foes they defeat. If they do something themselves all that learning goes to them. However if they are part of a team the experience is typically distributed amongst everybody. So the more quests you undertake, and the bigger those quests are, the more you’ll progress in your careers. If you play infrequently and only accept easy challenges it can take you ages to move forward, while if you work with a small but experienced team on tricky adventures you’ll grow much faster.The same is true with the web. Learning comes through experience and the more projects you undertake the better you’ll get. If you accept simple projects with little risk you’ll have an easy life but you won’t push yourself. It’s only by taking risks and working on projects that are slightly outside your comfort zone will you learn new skills and push your career forward apace.With some character classes, new skills become available at higher levels. You could argue the same is true on the web. There are certain skills you would typically only pick up at higher experience levels and are unlikely to be present in junior practitioners. As such, your level of experience really does impact what you can and cant contribute to a project.
Its really pretty obvious stuff, but you'd be shocked how many people out there get into their comfort zone, and stay there.  The point about moving out of your comfort zone (in my opinion) isn't really to do new things - though that certainly is a possibility.  The point is to get better at what you are doing right now!
The D&D parallel is quite amazing.  A 3rd level fighter can take forever to kill the baddie, but your 7th level fighter, well, one swing of your Sword Of Plenary Smiting and you move on.

So, try new things, see what lessons there are to be learned, and broaden your horizons.  You'll appreciate the results...

People walking in Brooklyn hold either an iPhone or a Coffee

No androids as far as I can see


Some industries just *need* to be regulated (more)

Barry Ritholz sez - Most of the World Wants More Bank Regulation:
That is what survey after survey around the globe shows that the world’s populations wants. Despite a relentless propaganda campaign of misinformation, fabricated data and false narratives, the public has not been fooled by the 1%. The best efforts of a well funded group of ideologues — Free Market absolutists, anti-Democracy and Randians — these pro-corporate radicals has not yet succeeded in fooling all of the world’s population all of the time.
How do we know this? A 25 country survey last year by Edelman. They asked the question: “When it comes to government regulation of business, do you think that your government regulates business too much, not enough or about the right amount?
...
One major caveat: I would imagine the major events of the past few years probably has people thinking of disasters in specific industries: Banking, Energy Exploration and Nuclear Power. If the questions were asked about those specific industries, I believe the response for more regs would be much higher. And if the question was asked, “outside of banking, deep water oil drilling and nuclear plants” I assume we would get lower numbers.
A particularly relevant point - Imagine the entertainment if Nuclear Power wasn't regulated at all Energy Exploration - the disaster in the Niger Delta, Banking - you need to ask?)

Greed is good and drives us forward, but outside certain limits it has the potential to become destructive

TSA! FTW!

Seriously Mr. TSA, what on earth do you think people will do with Two Razorblades (found concealed in the frame of a carry-on bag at Sacramento).
Note, I said "will do", not "can do" (which is what your paranoid dream-fever of a brain is doing as we speak).
Seriously, please do think about it...

Think Incompetence before Malice

Infinite sources (too obvious perhaps.  I bet there is a patent on this).
Wikipedia sez.

The quotation first came from Robert J. Hanlon of Scranton, Pennsylvania, according to his friend Joseph Bigler, as a submission for a book compilation of various jokes related to Murphy's lawpublished in 1980 titled Murphy's Law Book Two, More Reasons Why Things Go Wrong.[1] The name was inspired by Occam's razor.[2]
A similar quotation appears in Robert A. Heinlein's 1941 short story "Logic of Empire" ("You have attributed conditions to villainy that simply result from stupidity"); this was noticed in 1996 (five years before Bigler identified the Robert J. Hanlon citation) and first referenced in version 4.0.0 of the Jargon File,[3] with speculation that Hanlon's Razor might be a corruption of "Heinlein's Razor". "Heinlein's Razor" has since been defined as variations on Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity, but don't rule out malice.[4] Yet another similarepigram ("Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence") has been widely attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte.[5] Another similar quote appears in Goethe's The Sorrows of Young Werther (1774): "...misunderstandings and neglect create more confusion in this world than trickery and malice. At any rate, the last two are certainly much less frequent."
A common (and more laconic) British English variation, coined by Sir Bernard Ingham, is the saying "cock-up before conspiracy", deriving from this quotation:
Many journalists have fallen for the conspiracy theory of government. I do assure you that they would produce more accurate work if they adhered to the cock-up theory.
—Sir Bernard Ingham[6]

The main task of a startup's CEO is to not run out of money.

That is all.

Friday, January 27, 2012

Fitch takes aim at Europe (Eurocrisis edition)

FT Alphaville reports that Fitch has gone after a bunch-a European countries.
In particular
  • Belgium went from AA+ to AA (one notch)
  • Cyprus went from BBB to BBB- (one notch)
  • Italy went from A+ to A- (two notches)
  • Slovenia went from A to AA- (two notches)
  • Spain went from A to AA- (two notches)
Per Fitch, the only reason Italy stayed away from BBB territory (therein lies madness! beware! etc.) was that Monti seems to be doing something about reforms, and the ECB is basically providing infinite liquidity for the next three years.
Personally, I don't put much stock in the Monti entertainment - Italy still needs to grow at something like 5% over the mid-term to bring things back into kilter, and, well, that's not going to happen, is it?
So, credit the ECB, which begs the question - What happens in 3 years?  Seriously, Italy has something like $1-Trillion coming due over the next few years.  That isn't going anywhere, so kicking the can down the road three years is, well, kicking the can down the road three years.
Which, in the end, may be the point - A stay of execution means you don't die today...

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Apple's iBook EULA - is it enforceable?



You're probably aware of the iBook EULA flap (I've written about it here).  To recap, the EULA boils down to

  1. Feel free to create anything you want with this tool
  2. If you want to give the Fruits Of Your Genius away for free, rock on.  Do it however and wherever you want.
  3. If you you want to sell it however,
    1. You must sell it through us (Apple)
    2. If we don't want to sell it, you are Shit-out-of-Luck.
    3. And there isn't a damn thing you can do about it.
The latest twist in this, courtesy Max Kennerly of The Beasley Firm LLC, is that it looks like Apple may have actually overreached in their requests, making the EULA either not enforceable, or worse, enforceable but with minimal to no damages.  As he puts it
...in the end, the iBooks Author EULA leaves both Apple and the author in a strange stand-off: Apple doesn’t actually have the right to tell the author not to take their work somewhere else, but the author can’t do that without breaching the EULA — even though they retain full rights in their copyright.
But Apple has been too clever by half here: if an author does breach the EULA (by not subsequently signing the written agreement after having used the “free” software) and distributes their iBooks-created-work elsewhere, what are Apple’s damages? Because Apple doesn’t have a copyright interest in the book (like an exclusive license), they can’t claim lost royalties as the damage. Instead, they have to claim that an author breached the EULA of a program that users did not have to pay for in money.
 To summarize, Apple doesn't have the right to prevent you from doing whatever you want.  At worst you breach the EULA.  The thing is, by breaching the EULA, you *are* causing damage to Apple, but the damage has nothing to do with the book you wrote (remember, Apple has no copyright claim on your book).  It basically looks like you'll have to refund the cost of the software, which was free!

Interesting times indeed - I'm waiting for the next move here...

Mahesh's Seventh Law - Crazy Ideas

There are a million crazy ideas out there - and someone to express each one of them in code

Corollary
The stupider the idea, the more likely someone will create an app for it 

NFC instead of QR codes for boarding passes

I've been trying out the 'Use the QR code from your cell-phone' approach for boarding passes for a while now, and at this point am firmly in the It Just Doesn't Work Well camp.  Heres a typical sequence from two weeks ago
  1.  No reception at the airport (Yes ORD - I'm looking at you).  Frantic scrambling to connect to Boingo at $14.95, 'cos I'm about 4 minutes from boarding
  2. AA app suddenly decides to bork (update last night which apparently didn't sit well with my phone)
  3. Phone reboots, QR code not coming up
  4. Reboot again.  Aha! QR Code up.  Hell-light scanner won't read it. TSAs helpful advice "scan it again" doesnt work.
  5. Step aside to reboot phone since quitting/relaunching AA app disappears the QR code again.
  6. Hell-light definitely not operational.  TSA guy moves us all to the other line. Thankfully *not* to the back.
Well, you get the point.  And the above, while quite bad, was by no means the exception.  So, towards this, the news the they're looking at NFC to support airport check-ins is very welcome news.


NFC airport check-in and other uses demonstrated by Orange and SITA:

No-one likes airports, but NFC technology could go some way to reducing the stress a little. That's the possibility raised by a proof of concept from Orange Business Services and air transport research lab SITA, who have demonstrated how integrating NFC into mobile SIM cards may get you through the airport more smoothly. The idea centers around storing boarding pass information on the SIM card, meaning that you'd be able to check in, open security gates, or get easy access to airport lounges by simply waving your phone over a reader rather than searching for the papers in your bag or the QR code in an app. Because the data is written directly to the SIM card, it'll work even if the phone is powered off. SITA is owned by the aviation...
Continue reading…
Oh, FWIW, I *always* carry a printed boarding pass now, kinda negating the whole QR code point...

Monday, January 23, 2012

Warning to toe-dippers: Being online ≠ going social

Warning to toe-dippers: Being online ≠ going social:

Most brands participate in many, many social networks. But they use them purely as a messaging tool, which isn’t what social networks are built for. There are six common myths regarding what it means to go social:

  • Myth 1: Social media are all the same. Wrong, wrong, wrong! There are two major types of social media – networks and communities. Social networks maintain established relationships, but those relationships were initially established and strengthened in communities. Facebook is an example of a social network, while brand pages, Wikipedia and Yelp are communities. Knowing the differences between the two types of social media and what motivates customers to participate in them is important; it can help you build new campaigns that play to customers’ most durable interests and desires rather than forcing them to think or behave outside of their normal mode.

  • Myth 2: If we go social, we have to be on every channel. No you don’t. One high-quality social network or community will do far more for you than a hundred half-hearted cameos. So concentrate your energies on a few social networks or communities that are relevant to your most influential customers.

  • Myth 3: Being there is enough. Joining a social network or community isn’t enough. While marketing was once product-based and driven by outbound campaigns, online is based on customer relationships. Since repeat purchases, rather than the initial point-of-sale generate most revenues, the point-of-sale is the beginning of a very long relationship. Strengthening those relationships is what communities are for. Without an integrated social strategy, a haphazard presence can backfire. Lots of fan sites can devolve into forums of rants and spam that end up costing brands tremendous opportunities.

  • Myth 4: Social channels are an opportunity to broadcast direct, outbound marketing campaigns to a massive audience. Social networks and communities – brace yourself – are designed for socializing. In a forum designed for dialogue, one-way messages come off as spam. That’s why direct ad campaigns broadcast on Facebook tend to annoy more than persuade people. A community’s success depends on interaction, so think of your brand as a party host. A good host brings something amazing to the table, facilitates interesting and ongoing conversations, and listens more than talks.

  • Myth 5: OMG, going social means I have to make every customer my BFF. Contacting all of your customers is insanity, plain and simple. Instead, you need to discover the small number of “superfans” who want deeper engagement and then harness their enthusiasm to manage and strengthen other customer relationships on behalf of the brand. That’s the real power of community – you tend to the 1% who tend the other 99%.

  • Myth 6: I am the authority on my company, products, and services. Maybe. On the other hand, a customer who uses your products daily often knows them better and differently than you do. The other issue is a bit more abstract: Whose recommendation do you trust more: that of a sales rep or that of a long-time customer with honest expertise and enthusiasm for a product? Our data says people trust long-time customers much more. It’s a crucial trend to recognize because you can use social networks and communities to privilege the voices of customers who are the most trusted and respected authorities.

Overwhelmed yet? I don’t blame you. Thinking about making an investment in social can look overwhelming from the outside. You’re not just considering price and return on investment. You’re also thinking about how much up-front time and attention it’s going to take for you to launch and integrate; how you’re going to scale; and how you’re going to staff it. While it seems like a big pill to swallow now, going social for real and cultivating “superfans” and relationships is a business strategy that can save brands a huge amount of time, effort, and money.

Many principles behind the science of social aren’t really that new, because people and the way we interact and do business haven’t change all that much for the past millennia. Yet, for the first time, we have the capacity to capture, store and analyze human behavioral data at a planetary scale. This enables us to really discover new principles and rediscover old ones that govern how customers behave. And this is just the beginning.