Why that "Can't Miss" player you just got is sucking mightily
Or about the Sports Illustrated Cover jinx? "Can't Miss" players that flame out spectaculary?
Its all Regression To The Mean.
There are a lot of Rookies. A lot. Even if they were all resolutely average players, just based on random chance, one of them was to have a great year. Think of it this way - it just takes a freak gust of wind to convert a home run into an out. Or a missed tackle to convert a three yard run into a touchdown. Enough 'lucky breaks', and the next thing you know, Rookie Of The Year!
However, in year two, all those Rookies are now 2nd year players. And the pool has actually gotten larger - basically everyone in the league, instead of just the rookies. To add insult to injury, the player is very very unlikely to have the same set of 'lucky breaks' two years in a row - its going to be someone else's turn.
In short, he player is probably going to Regress To The Mean, and compared to the great year they had before, they are pretty much going to suck mightily.
Nothing special about the Sports Illustrated Cover after all...
Incidentally, this is exactly the reason that a lot of Quack Cures "work" - you were going to get better anyhow, but you attribute the act to the Quack Cure. Be warned!
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